My thoughts about Zune vs. iPod
So, you’ve seen the Zune video. Here’s my thoughts about whether Microsoft is going to be successful.
I’ll come at it from a number of different angles:
THE FUNDAMENTALS
Box design: good. As good as iPod.
Look and feel and overall hardware quality: good. As good as iPod. I actually even liked the brown one a lot.
Screen: better than iPod.
Hard drive size: worse than iPod.
Features: mixed bag, we’ll get into that below.
Price: in the right neighborhood.
Marketing: unknown, but Apple has set such a high bar that I doubt Microsoft can even get close.
Software experience: unknown.
Updateability: better than iPod (if I were Apple I’d worry about this).
Conversationality: (Does it cause a conversation). Here Apple wins with the white headphones hands down.
Integration: beats the iPod cause it works with Xbox.
EDGE CASE
As an edge case, IE, someone who tries all the latest stuff and gets excited about a lot of it, the Zune abjectly fails. It does not have a killer feature. Sorry, Microsoft, sharing songs is not it.
Instead, the bleeding edge of the market cares about sharing cool videos, some of which they might have shot themselves, sharing cool podcasts (my son listens to many podcasts in addition to the music), and using their device to record their own content.
Zune doesn’t have a podcast client.
Zune doesn’t have a microphone.
Zune doesn’t have a way to subscribe to Rocketboom or ZeFrank or any other videoblog.
Last weekend Dave Winer took my son and me to an Apple store. What was on the biggest sign in the store? Podcasting. Apple gets this trend, Microsoft doesn’t.
But let’s look deeper. The Zune has a wifi antenna. Can I use it to download music without hooking up to a computer? No.
Does it work with a Macintosh? No.
Does it free me from DRM? No.
Can I use my iPod music on it that I’ve purchased on iTunes? No.
Can I record off of the FM tuner? No.
The one thing that gets close to a killer feature is the subscription feature so that I can listen to unlimited music. If I buy a Zune this will probably be the reason.
THE KIDS’ VIEW
My son is a good gauge of whether Zune has a chance. Peer pressure is hyper strong to have an iPod. If you show up to school with something that isn’t an iPod you aren’t cool. Now, that’ll change if kids think there’s something cool or better. So far nothing I showed Patrick about Zune got him interested. Especially since he and his friends listen to lots of podcasts and because he’d rather have a huge amount of storage than be able to subscribe to a music service. Let’s be honest too, many of these kids have huge music collections: my son has hundreds of songs purchased off of iTunes and many many others. How do they trade songs? They trade iPods.
THE USER’S POINT OF VIEW
There’s not enough data here. The Zune team didn’t show us the OOBE (Out Of Box Experience). This is why the iPod got my attention years ago. Steve Jobs showed how much faster it was in transfering songs cause they used Firewire instead of a slower cable.
I remember being in a meeting at Microsoft where someone showed off how much better the iPod experience was than what other OEMs had produced. Little things like iTunes knows to put the matching icon up on the UI for the kind of iPod you use. Even the right color. It’s a little touch. But it’s the kind of thing that subliminally makes users feel good about the system.
Until Microsoft ships we won’t know how good these small details have been matched.
Also, several people have told me they didn’t like the round control surface on the Zune because they were used to the iPod wheel and the Zune didn’t work the same way. Once you get used to it, the Zune is just fine (and offers a couple of advantages, especially when watching movies or looking at photos, but that demonstrates just how deeply the iPod’s UI has been implanted into our brains).
THE PLATFORM/ECOSYSTEM
iPod has hundreds of accessories and has car manufacturers who make their cars “iPod compatible.” Zune won’t be able to match that out of the gate. Zune, on the other hand, integrates into Xbox and Media Center better than iPod.
And, the Zune has a better software updater. I’m already hearing that within a few days of release in mid-November that there will already be some new features released.
That’s something Apple should worry about. If Microsoft can upgrade all of its Zune players easily with new features and games and such, then they can build experiences that the iPod can’t easily get (and if third-party developers can play there, watch out. Remember 1989? I thought the Macintosh was superior to Windows. Which one ended up with more market share? The ones that the developers could extend the easiest.
CONCLUSION
It’s that last point that could turn into a killer feature. If software developers are enabled to build new experiences for the Zune, then we could see something killer come along that’ll get more people interested in the Zune.
But, for now, I’d stick with an iPod. Microsoft hasn’t given us a killer feature yet that is easily demonstratable for why we should buy a Zune instead of an iPod.
Do you agree or disagree?
October 26th, 2006 at 1:06 pm
One area I don’t see mentioned in this or any other article comparing Zune to IPod is that Zune is, for now, one product. IPod has three distinct versions. In my household, we have all 3 (shuffle - for my workouts, Nano - for my wife, full size - for my large music collection in the car). If I’m not mistaken, the Nano is the biggest IPod seller. If Microsoft is going to make a dent, it will be based upon quickly extending their product line to compete against the Nano too. And not just emulating it, they have to surpass it widely.
Also not mentioned so much is the experience of buying or copying music to the Zune. Will their version of ITunes be easy? Will it just work? Or will it be a drawn out process (see the comparison videos at 37 Signals for an example….
October 26th, 2006 at 1:13 pm
I agree with you, as the sound of your blog. I think it will take alot of effort to convert me to some other MP3 player than my IPod Nano 2GB than something else. Because i like the service and the amount of songs that are available on iTunes. Too simply put it, Microsoft won’t get any “ipod” customers. Why? Because the ipod users are very satisfied with their selection of music, film and podcasts. And i still think ipods are more wanted than other different kind of mp3 players. At least here in Sweden or probably Scandinavia. It still would be cheaper than a Zune or other mp3 player in the same range.
Yours Sincerely
David Feldt
October 26th, 2006 at 1:15 pm
Obviously, nobody is going to take down the iPod in the near (or even foreseeable?) future.
This first version of Zune is a Toshiba Gigabeat + wifi + slicker UI (and the Gigabeat is using Portable Media Center 2.0 UI, which is already slick in its own right). I have an iPod, but I’ve regarded the Gigabeat as the best all-around portable digital player; that is, until the Zune. This first Zune’s successors will be the ones that Apple might have to worry about (those will likely have the podcast support; and the aftermarket products will be more established (it’s being established even as we speak)). As it is, all of the other players do have to be concerned with the Zune, even if Apple isn’t.
Now, regarding the “kid’s view”. You’re obviously rich, to have your kid trading $300 dollar gadgets with other kids without the first care in the world as to whether they get lost, stolen, broken, et. In my neighborhood, nobody “trades iPods”. Those that have them guard them. They don’t have the money to replace them if something goes awry in such trades. But Apple has always appealed to the rich, so maybe they do have a stronger hold in that segment of the populace.
And why would “white earphones” be a conversation starter? Not in my experience. If it is, what color are the earphones of the white Zune? If it’s white, does that nullify that particular “advantage”? ;-)
I’m interested in build quality too. The increasing reports on message boards regarding people going to two or three iPods in 24 months is worrisome. If Zune has better build quality (and that’ll be up to Toshiba), then that’s a big advantage right there.
October 26th, 2006 at 1:17 pm
I do not think missing podcast support is that big of a deal, especially considering it will watch the folders and sync up properly. This will let you use a 3rd party rss/podcast sync to download the files into the proper folder. Its not “ideal” but i personally cant stand using iTunes, so for me, it falls under the “at least as good” category.
October 26th, 2006 at 1:22 pm
Good analysis, but it really matters little in the long run, as Microsoft doesn’t command that pop culture edge needed to take this bigtime. And it’s just a beta test anyways, like the UMPC/Tablet/Smartphone/Pocket PC, better off waiting for version 2 or 3 or multiple firmware upgrades.
PS - Whatever happened to the PMCs? Wow…that’s disappeared faster than anything. All the rage for Microsoft at CES, and gone in 60 seconds.
October 26th, 2006 at 1:24 pm
PSS - Sorta come back with the UI, sooo Zune is PMC2 then?
October 26th, 2006 at 1:27 pm
So here’s why I think the Zune might make an OK go at it…everyone has an iPod. What was one of the biggest factors of picking up an iPod? The cool, hey look, that guy/girl has an iPod. That no longer works. But if Microsoft gets behind the Zune from a marketing standpoint people may pick it up just to be the cool kid on the block again.
October 26th, 2006 at 1:32 pm
>>Does it work with a Macintosh? No.
Does it really matter?? WOuld you or 99% of the ipod crowd bought it if it was not compatible with a PC/windows –>>> NONONONONO.
I am sure the marketing guys at microsoft are intelligent enough to make it compatible if Mac continues to grow.And it will appeal even more to 85% of the office crowd using MSoffice in their work place where they have no permission to install itunes. Zune will be integrated in wmp. A HUGE advantage.
>>Kids point of view
Frankly its not the kids point of view. Its your point of view. He gets an ipod coz you allow that. Another parent having a PC might be more inclined to buy a zune seeing a microsoft logo there. And yes kids love gadgets that can integrate with xbox.
Read somewhere that microsoft is going to make its point system ubiquitous. You play games or share movies and you earn points. Use that to buy song. Now that is cool as well for gamers and Kids.
>>The Zune team didn’t show us the OOBE (Out Of Box Experience
Well you no longer work for microsoft. And even if you had, the zune team might have had some restrictions on leaking out the features. This is hardly a reason to worry about at this stage. Wait for some more time.
>>But, for now, I’d stick with an iPod.
You have too. Even if you wish there it is not for sale :)
>>The Zune has a wifi antenna. Can I use it to download music without hooking up to a computer? No.
Again it depends on the demand. If more ppl want that feature, it should be easy to implement. Sell a wifi reciever, update the software and it should work seemlessly.
>>Zune doesn’t have a microphone.
Nor does the ipod have. Atleast my shuffle has none (btw i got the shuffle free..otherwise i might have
got something cheap that fits a students pocket).
>>Zune doesn’t have a podcast client.
>>Zune doesn’t have a way to subscribe to Rocketboom or ZeFrank or any other videoblog.
Guess you are confused here. A podcast client and a way to subscribe are in no way RELATED TO ZUNE. ZUNE is the HARDWARE. These are SOFTWARE. All microsoft needs to do is a software update. And yes, they need not be in hurry as 99% of teh ppl using computers have not heard podcast (and/or) not used it yet like me!!
October 26th, 2006 at 1:34 pm
I agree with the post. Right out of the box the Zune is no iPod killer. We all know it, Apple knows it and above all Microsoft knows it. Right out of the box 1G Zune is an entry point. It’s a basic device which tries to get the basic right.
However I think the some interesting features are going to come in as updates. After some time when a few thousands Zune are sold and all the minor glitches worked out, that’s when we will see the upgrades.
I don’t think the form factor of the G1 Zune has mush role at this stage. In case the form factor really becomes a problem MS can easily introduce a new Zune with different design. Over a period of time it will be worked out.
Sometimes I think the missing features in Zune can also be a sort of marketing strategy. Let the device go out with a couple of features missing and add it within a couple of days of release to garner attention. I am sure adding support for podcast will not be that difficult through an update.
As for voice recording I don’t expect this to be added. Nor games. They will like to stay with the music and introducing those at this stage takes away from the main message.
Finally all will hang upon the updates. That gives them a huge advantage. They can basically introduce any features which they think people are missing the most. In other words the product can evolve.
However I am wondering if anyone sees any features in Zune which are not there, but are present in iPod(except for podcast)?
Rohit
PS : Maybe theory of 3G product with MS still holds….
October 26th, 2006 at 1:37 pm
In unrelated news, Scoble relates anything to anything else.
October 26th, 2006 at 1:37 pm
I don’t really think that podcasts are such a big thing for kids right now. I would say it’s kind of lame to see a kid subscribing a podcast.
Probably what’s going on here, is that podtech.net feels left behind by the lack of this feature on the Zune.
If podcasting was as cool as they say, that feature would have been there since the first version :)
$0.02
October 26th, 2006 at 1:39 pm
again one last thing. There is no use scolding MS or Apple for DRM. The music companies dont want that. If MS or apple refuses to implement that, the music companies are going to stop selling cheap music. It is as simple as that.
October 26th, 2006 at 1:40 pm
>>I don’t really think that podcasts are such a big >>thing for kids right now. I would say it’s kind of >>lame to see a kid subscribing a podcast.
Actually i know some kids listening to major nelsons podcast. IF there are gonna listen to some podcast from SUN ceo or google or MS programmers, there is some big problem.. This is not the age to worry to much about technology. Rather play and have fun
October 26th, 2006 at 1:41 pm
one huge thing, i wonder why microsoft lost it..
i mean windows media player, common should that sync instead of the zune marketplace..
thats pretty lame.
wifi thats pretty lame.. if i cant use it so stream or sync music with…
whats the point then… i am not gonna share songs with some one alone…
maybe its true.. we wait for version 3.
October 26th, 2006 at 1:45 pm
I’m pretty sure ‘Updateability’ is not actually a word.
I also fail to see why you think having or wanting to update your music player often is a good thing. And for the tweaking-inclined ipod owners there are replacement firmware/OS solutions0 like Rockbox: http://www.rockbox.org/
In fact, I bet they will be running on the Zune in no time, and hackers (in the good sense of the word. Stupid media) like them might open the Zune’s rather crippled wifi to its full potential. Because this p2p 3xplay stuff is really rather lame.
I’m still getting massive use out of my 40 Gb non-video non-colour screen ipod that I bought some 2-odd years ago. To be fair, I did replace the battery recently with a fresh heavy-duty one. If it were to break down right now, I’d probably buy another ipod; I’d have a hard time choosing between the rather sleek and light 8 Gb nano or the fat 80 Gb ipod for the packrat in me.
October 26th, 2006 at 1:52 pm
You make some good points. But let’s look at these that I think are a little glaring:
“But let’s look deeper. The Zune has a wifi antenna. Can I use it to download music without hooking up to a computer? No.”
I agree, that would make that killer feature much more “killer”. How about throwing a browser on the Zune too? Then work with Verizon and get a MP3/phone combo that Apple is possibly working on.
“Does it work with a Macintosh? No.”
Not really a deal breaker at this point. You are going to have a hard time convincing any self respecting Mac user to give up their Steve Jobs goodness. So why even try in that market out of the gate? And MS really only cares about numbers. 3% doesn’t amount to much.
“Does it free me from DRM? No.”
Neither does the iPod, so I don’t see why this is even mentioned. I hate DRM myself, but no player is going to free us from DRM. Only the big, bag record labels can.
“Can I use my iPod music on it that I’ve purchased on iTunes? No.”
You know better. Since the iPod is an “accepted” closed system, everyone thinks that this is an advantage. But the iTunes purchased music is all DRM’ed, so I couldn’t imagine this any other way. And with a big player like MS entering the market, any chance of Apple opening up their DRM to competitors is now nil.
“Can I record off of the FM tuner? No.”
Agreed. Hopefully this will be one of the upgraded features. Given their experience with MCE, I would imagine we will see it at sometime.
MARKETING
The marketing I have seen has been pretty good, and is innovative in a viral sort of way. Remember something about the iPod marketing. Apple wants us all to “think different”, however, how are we all thinking different when we all have the same device? I think that in the teen/college aged sector, there are still plenty of people out there that are anit-cool, whereas they don’t like those things that everyone else thinks are cool. If MS taps in to this marketing niche, I think they can find some success in the market.
In any case, MS has already stated that they are in this for the long haul, and don’t expect (and shouldn’t) to win it overnight. Strong second is what they hope for, and with an expanded product line, downloadable features, and what I am going to assume some sort of hackability, they should be able to do it.
October 26th, 2006 at 1:56 pm
Wi-Fi on such a small device is a killer feature and we will be sync’n with our PC’s for content.
October 26th, 2006 at 2:06 pm
> Remember 1989? I thought the Macintosh was superior
> to Windows. Which one ended up with more market
> share? The ones that the developers could extend
> the easiest.
Wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong. Microsoft wound up with marketshare to competition (hardware) and a lack of competition (operating system) caused by Microsoft’s manipulative processes.
Because there were lots of PC compatible box manufacturers all making the same product they competed on price driving costs down. To Apple’s view, there was no competition and therefore no need to keep price down. Apple guessed wrong and people chose low cost computers over high priced computers.
But that doesn’t mean buyers chose Windows - that’s just what came installed on the box they bought. Lots of us formatted the drive and installed the OS we really wanted. This double charge for an OS eventually gave Microsoft the upper hand and their competitors were driven out of the market.
But don’t make the mistake of thinking we chose Windows or that the PC platform won because it was superior. If superiority were the issue we’d all be using systems based on IBM’s PS/2 computers.
October 26th, 2006 at 2:13 pm
Size and functionality will keep zune from zooming.
I have a shuffle that made it through the hot water wash and the very hot regular dry cycle inside my cargo pants. I would be far too afraid to re-create the same scenario for the Nano or Zune. I like many others have the shuffle for hard use and the Nano, iPod’s are reserved for cool town casual stuff.
I believe the Zune will become your “Fathers Oldsmobile”. Pre-loaded with Lasik commercials. The smaller screen on the Nano is somewhat of a litmus test, don’t trust anyone over 40 deal. Check this out on my Nano … hang on I have to get my reading glasses.
Multiply the error times 10 and see if the size has a big impact. The same logic applies to all error analysis.
Bigger was bad-er. I; would also stick to the iPod.
October 26th, 2006 at 2:15 pm
If you did a feature based comparison like this one on Youtube Vs Google video which will come on top?
Even if YT wins it will be by a very small margin. But the market trend didnt quite obey that.
If feature based scientific comparison was the way to predict markets and trends we wouldnt have failed products
October 26th, 2006 at 2:19 pm
Top Five Reasons Why Zune Will Fail
By now, you’ve probably heard all about Microsoft new MP3 player - Zune. You can see it discussed in some detail by Zune’s product manager on the Scoble Show;and Scoble discusses Zune versus the iPod on his blog.
My view on Zune? I think…
October 26th, 2006 at 2:21 pm
But let’s look deeper. The Zune has a wifi antenna. Can I use it to download music without hooking up to a computer? No.
This REALLY would be an advantage, imagine being able to get music anywhere, I am sure microsoft could quite easily implement some kind of browser technology to enable end users to be able to do this, lets face it there are web browsers compact enough to run on a pocket pc or a mobile phone, if you were able to download via WI-FI with no PC needed I would probably not think twice about getting one of these.
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It is a shame to see that this is yet another device that does not free the user from DRM, however if people would only purchase their stuff legally then maybe there would be no need for DRM in the first place.
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Updateability: better than iPod (if I were Apple I’d worry about this). I Agree 110% this has to be a distinct advantage for Microsoft.
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Shame that it does not work with a mac, though I would have to say this does not cause any problems for me as I use my mac only for design work and photo editing and my PC for everything else, but I can kind of appreciate the need for cross platform support.
October 26th, 2006 at 2:35 pm
Robert, I like your review. I have been using the Yahoo music subscription service for the past couple of years and thought about switching to Zune, but in the end decided to just order a new Creative Zen Vision:M for $200 and stick with Yahoo for now. Yahoo Music is a bit cheaper solution for a subscription music solution and works with a couple of other older devices I already own. I think the second generation Zune will be worth a look in 18 months or so.
Like you said market share changes in music playing/purchasing platforms will likely depend on youthful customers - Microsoft faces an uphill struggle due to Apple’s marketing genius and reasonably decent hardware and software engineering.
October 26th, 2006 at 2:37 pm
I’ll be buying a Zune because of the subscription music. I’ve been using Yahoo music for a while now, and I love it. It’s really amazing to have access to so much music, and I really think its a “killer” feature. But the user experience with the current “playforsure” services is terrible. The software (e.g. Yahoo music engine) is slow, the music transfers are unreliable, and the hardware is a mess. Every player seems to be unreasonably slow when playing the DRM’d tracks, and none provide a good user experience. But Zune can fix all that.
Also, I don’t think podcast support is quite so important - if anything, video is the cool hip thing at the moment (hence youtube’s success). Of all the people I know who have ipods, only a very small percentage listen to podcasts. And Microsoft can easily fix the issue in future firmware versions.
October 26th, 2006 at 2:43 pm
MS has been famous for releasing faulty software and devices… so updateability is a must!
At the end, there will be over 3 versions of this Zune device…. and I’m sure ipod will release some version of the ipod with wifi connectivity if the time becomes that you download music directly to your zune … that is not too hard to implement… I may say this antenna for ipod may be plugable and sold like any other ipod plug in.
Besides… as usual, some crazy guy with nothing important to do will figure out a way to install a linux kernel on the Zune…
This is so typical that honestly I don’t feel any excitement about the launch of this player.
October 26th, 2006 at 2:45 pm
The Zune product team is run by J.Allard. This man is very close to to destroying Sony’s Playstation. Zune is round 1 of at least 12. I know who I’m putting my money on.
October 26th, 2006 at 3:25 pm
Before responding to Scobie, I have to respond to this:
“This man is very close to to destroying Sony’s Playstation.”
Ha, ha, ha!!! Sony can screw itself and sit on its ass and the PS2 still outsells both the XBox and the XBox 360 combined currently. The XBox 360 is selling SLOWER than the first XBox. Destroying Sony indeed.
October 26th, 2006 at 3:27 pm
Goebbels - any stats to back your claim?
October 26th, 2006 at 3:38 pm
For me, the lack of the ability to sync down audio or video netcasts/podcasts over wifi is a real missed opportunity. Granted, they will probably do this as a software update but that would be the killer feature to have at launch, particularly as broadcasters such as the BBC are offering radio and TV shows this way so you can mix UGC with traditional broadcast stuff. Since I will never buy or download protected content, the whole Zune store thing isn’t very interesting, neither is the sharing (the 3×3 thing kills that for me). Plus, my new T-Mobile Dash phone is so sexy I’m wondering if I really need a separate device at all.
October 26th, 2006 at 3:39 pm
I know who I’m putting my money on.
Well, you will have to put that money on, once, twice, thrice, again, again and again, never-ending really. The Microsoft Beta Test Ecosystem Defense Fund. And Sony, even given it’s trainwreck-level massive problems, still has a worldwide PS3 footprint marketshare that will vault them to the top, in terms of raw numbers. In fact, they already outsell Xbox and Xbox 360 combined, that with a 6 year old VGS.
If you started, and bet on Win CE/Pocket PC from the get-go, you would have had to buy 6 devices, sometimes much more depending on the OEM you chose, per various firmware and chipset upgrade issues.
Expect the Early Adopters, the MVP and other freebie entitlement Webmasters and other Microsoft Mobius-leeches like that, to go bonkers. Everyone else, wait 2-3 years before you even start to pay attention.
October 26th, 2006 at 3:39 pm
I don’t get how upgradability is a major advantage over the iPod?
Apple has released iPod firmware updates for years. And since iTunes 7 has been released, everyone will be alerted of updates and be told to install them.
Example of updates to Apple firmware: addition of AAC support when the music store was introduced, addition of podcast support, Nike+iPod support, etc.
If Apple ever feels the need to match a software feature on the Zune, it will take a simple firmware update.
October 26th, 2006 at 3:51 pm
Part 1
“Box design: good. As good as iPod.”
This isn’t very “Fundamental” or important to the success of the product. Just doing better than the horrible job MS usually does does not provide any advantage. It’s nice to see, but rather insignificant. More important will be how it is displayed: Apple has its own stores and millions of users allowing anyone to sample an iPod. Microsoft will be behind a glass case in a box in WalMart.
“Look and feel and overall hardware quality: good. As good as iPod. I actually even liked the brown one a lot.”
But you are missing size. On this type of device, the slightest difference is immensely noticeable. You can see this within the iPod community between generations. I know people who upgraded, not because of features, but because of size. Zune has a HUGE disadvantage here.
“Screen: better than iPod.”
Debatable. Not much bigger, lower quality. And we only have one point of comparison. Apple has 3 devices: one with no screen, one with a small screen, one with an average screen. It is now the appropriate time to buy into rumors and expect a much larger and better screen than the Zune in the next 3 months, if not before the holiday.
“Hard drive size: worse than iPod.”
Yes.
“Features: mixed bag, we’ll get into that below.”
Yes, below.
“Price: in the right neighborhood.”
But probably costly to MS without the proper scale at this time.
“Marketing: unknown, but Apple has set such a high bar that I doubt Microsoft can even get close.”
True, but the “viral” campaigns have been pathetic and scattered. There does not appear to be a strong, focused marketing message. Will wait…
“Software experience: unknown.”
Agreed. Why didn’t you push any buttons on this? This is MS’s “integrated” experience and the best we have is a screenshot of the library. That’s it. If the software is so cool, so community focused, why has MS been unwilling to prime the hype pumps on this aspect?
“Updateability: better than iPod (if I were Apple I’d worry about this).”
Woah, woah, woah!!! This is absurd! Because Zune doesn’t have the many, many features people expect and they say, “Well, we could add that in the future”, you say it has better upgradability? Absurd! Apple Macs had been far ahead of PCs in terms of upgradable firmware, and the iPod has always had upgradable firmware. The rest of the market has upgradable firmware. You haven’t seen the software, Zune hasn’t been released (nevermind refreshed)… You can’t claim it’s more upgradable! The device will have its limitations as all hardware is by definition constrained in its software upgradability.
Maybe it can be said that Apple has a preference to not work on upgrading older models to drive adoption of new generations, but it can’t be claimed that the Zune is more upgradable.
Hell, we’ve recently seen how even “renegade” companies like Archos have released “upgrades” which limit features. For all we know, Microsoft will have to impair its WiFi because of studio pressure. We can’t just give them a star for claiming they may or may not add features in the future because they don’t have them now and because they’ve discovered this thing that’s existed for years called “upgradable firmware.” Sorry, Scobie, but you are just sucking on the old teet on this one.
“Conversationality: (Does it cause a conversation). Here Apple wins with the white headphones hands down.”
Apple wins here, hands down, agreed. But not because of white headphones. They win here because they have a clear, focused vision which is reflected in their products, advertising, strategy, etc…
“Integration: beats the iPod cause it works with Xbox.”
What? Because it can stream (when connected by a wire) to a device owned by less than 20 million people it has an advantage in integration? What about 70% of US cars having iPod docks, what about 3000+ accessories, what about connecting any mp3 player to any home entertainment component. Sorry, ZERO advantage Microsoft.
Fundamentals you ignore:
Strategy confusion, abandonment: what about PFS devices and stores?
Media experience or music experience: Zune is primarily focused on music. What is, where is MS’s strategy on TV, films, other video, podcasts, games, and personal information like notes, contacts, calendars? MS has had PMCs, Smartphones, the XBox, etc… for years, yet they ignored these other personal media experiences in the Zune. Why?
A Family of Products: How do you get WiFi in a Nano? How do you tout that bigger screen in a shuffle-like device? How do you hit every price point selling a rebranded third-party product with very low volumes?
The full ecosystem: MS can catch up here, but their strategy seems to be give the higher margins to the retailers but put the risk on them (inventories, advertising, etc…). Apple may not be every retailers friend, but the advertising happens on its own without work, and even if margins are lower, the inventories fly off the shelf. Likewise, MS’s strategy seems to be to provide many of these accessories themselves. Apple does so as well, but not as broadly — kitschier products, smaller niche products, higher end items. How does MS get the ecosystem if they are providing most of the accessories themselves? How does MS attract the truly significant partners like Nike when they will have a much, much smaller share of the market?
October 26th, 2006 at 3:53 pm
devil’s advocate, yes, I do. Since it’s a self-evident and well-known fact, you can use this thing called the web and Google to find out for yourself. I see know reason to try to teach you something.
October 26th, 2006 at 3:54 pm
I think the iPod will win this and probably the next round mainly because of one thing: brand awarenes.
October 26th, 2006 at 4:06 pm
Before moving on to Part 2, I realized I skipped a piece of my integration argument… So I’ll provide a prediction. I bet you that by the end of 2007, Apple has sold more “iTVs” than MS has sold XBoxes. (Maybe that’s too bold, but I bet the number is close… Say between 8 and 15 million.)
So… Not only does the iPod have 3000+ accessories, docks on 70% of all new cars, integration with both the Mac and PC platform (can I “integrate” Zune with a Mac?), but they will also have the same home integration at a higher level of functionality and probably greater ease of use with (the same or nearly) as many users.
October 26th, 2006 at 4:14 pm
Part 2
The Edge Case.
Firstly, I agree the Zune presents no compelling features for the geek.
Secondly, are you really continuing to argue that subs are the killer feature after 4 years of hype and zero success? Sad. Subs do not even register as a blip. You may buy into renting music for your entire life, but most edge cases either want to own or are willing to indulge in piracy.
Thirdly, who cares? Geeks may be a source of early penetration, but we are FIVE YEARS into the development of this market. The iPod is for edge cases, the mainstream, and those who weren’t even big music consumers but are newly discovering they enjoy the personal device. The edge case might have been significant 5 years ago. Now, the edge is simply those geeks who want to hack the “OS” and who want support for a dozen barely used OSS content formats. Zune will never provide these “edge case” features, and the edge doesn’t represent a significantly large enough market segment to matter.
October 26th, 2006 at 4:24 pm
This is a very biased and one-sided comparison.
So Robert, does the IPOD free you from DRM? NO!
In fact, the ONLY reason the Zune can’t play iTunes music is because of APPLE DRM!!!
GIVE ME A BREAK!!!
October 26th, 2006 at 4:27 pm
Goebbels - thanks for the pointers. I am still not sure what ‘web’ is. You see, i am writing this message on a clay tablet and my genie would put that on this thing called ‘blog’.
I see you are a wise man. Great predictions on iTV.
You should be very wise. You are able to write a big comparison story without having seen/used the device. ( remote possibility - you have seen it - Still thats not the one out of the box)
Aren’t you going to predict 99% market share for macs also? I am tired of all market predictors. You can look up a couple of pictures/use some thing for 10 minutes and go on on how the market and the mass will react to things. Why dont you tell me that you knew GOOG would hit 485 today and YT will be bought for 1.65 billion…
October 26th, 2006 at 4:44 pm
Part 3: The Kids’ View
Not much to argue here, but I’m much, much less enamored with the “coolness” argument. The iPod is cool because it is cool. It is a trendsetter, and Apple appears to have the vision to keep executing, keeping the iPod ahead of the pack. The “Fundamental” section of your comments shows that the Zune is not cool, nevermind cooler.
However, your point about sharing deserves comment. The iPod has always been a great sharing device: use headphone splitters, share the headphones, swap iPods, connect your iPod to a friend’s computer or stereo or iPod dock, stash one of many small apps on your iPod so you can pull tunes off the iPod to share. Lend your iPod to someone for a day or two or longer. All of these modes of sharing trump MS’s marketing speak about “social experiences” when thaty social experience is confined to a highly limited one-directional “sharing” aimed at adding some revenue to MS’s coffers. This sharing on the iPod (and largely available to any DAP but less so because of smaller marketshare and less of an ecosystem) is more human and interactive and real than Ballmer’s “squirting” with limited playback.
October 26th, 2006 at 4:44 pm
Regarding podcasting, according to http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback109.html, only 20% of downloaded podcasts are ever transported to a portable player.
And I’d surmise that only 3% of portable players ever have podcasts transfered to them at all.
This is not a big deal.
And as was stated above, you can probably use a 3rd party podcast subscriber and just sync with the folders that that 3rd party app uses.
Dare is in the process of adding podcast support to RSS Bandit as we speak. ;-)
IE7’s RSS functionality already supports automatically downloading multimedia attachments within RSS feeds (i.e. podcasts), so one can simply sync with the folders that IE downloads those to as well.
Not a big deal, IMO.
October 26th, 2006 at 4:48 pm
Nothing to add, I just wanted to say kudos to a really good comparison.
October 26th, 2006 at 4:49 pm
Another thing -
Regarding lack of Mac support:
This is not an issue. You know why? 99.99999% of Mac users will NOT choose a product against which Apple competes. They will choose the product that Jobs tells them to, end of story. That’s why there’s virtually zero (or only half-hearted at best) support for the Mac by other portable player makers. They know that Apple has that market locked up to themselves. The Windows market is much more competitive.
October 26th, 2006 at 4:57 pm
Goebbels, what makes you think that Zune can’t do the sharing that you cite for iPod? Zune does have headphone splitters, you can share Zunes, you can plug them into a friend’s computer, etc.
October 26th, 2006 at 5:01 pm
Good article. Got a question though. The iPod works with an Xbox 360. You connect to it and you can play the (non DRM crippled) songs on it. Does the Zune does anything else? Can you buy songs from the Zune Marketplace with an Xbox 360? Can you use the Zune only with an Xbox 360 (no windows required)?
October 26th, 2006 at 5:03 pm
You are making a lot of asumptions of what Apple’s software capability is and what they have up their sleeve Robert. Are you sre the excitement of getting some hands on time with the Zune team is not clouding your judgement that while the Zune is not released yet, but you know what’s coming with it that you have forgotten that Apple is probably working on their next big thing which can occur at any time with no pre-warning?
October 26th, 2006 at 5:10 pm
Yah Dad, we don’t trade iPods we go to each others houses and steals their music ;)
October 26th, 2006 at 5:13 pm
“This is not an issue. You know why? 99.99999% of Mac users will NOT choose a product against which Apple competes. They will choose the product that Jobs tells them to, end of story.”
This is such a silly myth. 90% of Mac users use both systems because the work environment forces them to. Most Mac users will consider any worthwhile product.
And I’m not making a point about trying to attract that marketshare (although the Mac marketshare is greater than the XBox marketshare in pure numbers), but that it is not a more integratable device… in which case, it is relevant that the Zune can only connect to the XBox.
“Goebbels, what makes you think that Zune can’t do the sharing that you cite for iPod? Zune does have headphone splitters, you can share Zunes, you can plug them into a friend’s computer, etc.”
Did you miss the part where I said: “This sharing on the iPod (and largely available to any DAP but less so because of smaller marketshare and less of an ecosystem) is more human and interactive and real than Ballmer’s “squirting” with limited playback.”? The point is: the extremely limited WiFi sharing doesn’t enable or improve sharing in any meaningful way. It is essentially the sole differentiator, yet it is not a true differentiator.
October 26th, 2006 at 5:33 pm
>>Yah Dad, we don’t trade iPods we go to each others >>houses and steals their music
scoble gets owned for over exagerration of stuff.
October 26th, 2006 at 5:48 pm
Robert,
On Screen: The screen on the Zune and video iPod is the same resolution. The screen size is larger on the Zune, which actually makes the image easier to see, but the image quality will look worse.
On box: The box as pictured for the Zune is quite poor. It only has a Zune logo and name. No image or description. (I realize that MS tends to over do it with description, but no description at all is going too far the other way) The current iPod package is now a clear box. It is very easy to see what you get with iPod. Zune box will only appeal to people who already know that they want a Zune.
On subscriptions: So far the bulk of the Music services, except iTunes, already offer subscriptions. To date that has not been a significant feature requirement based on current subscription levels. Maybe MS will get Zune/Subscriptions right, but that is unclear at this time.
On updates: iPod/iTunes does and has done many updates, some are bug fixes, some add new features. Prior to iTunes 7, iPod updater was a standalone program, but in iTunes 7 it is now integrated directly in iTunes. iTunes updates now part of Apple Software update on both Mac & Windows.
Thats enough for now.
Mark
October 26th, 2006 at 6:34 pm
I have a 60 GB iPod, a 4 GB Nano and a 1 GB shuffle. I recently ordered the new shuffle. My wife has a 4 GB Nano and both kids have 4 GB Mini’s. I have over 30,000 songs loaded into iTunes and use two 200 GB Seagate External Storage Devices for back-up. In my neighborhood, I’m not the exception. Apple’s advantage is what Seth Godin always raves about; i.e.: being first has some serious advantages. In this case it is the level of penetration that they have achieved and the level of complexity they have created relative to change. It’s the same reason I don’t buy software from Apple….yea, you know it. I’m a MS fan all the way when it comes to running my business and my home computing.
October 26th, 2006 at 6:40 pm
Good interview Robert, the Microsoftie is young and looked Nervous, but otherwise I like what I see with the Zune, will this hurt Apple, not on your life, to much mind share and market share.
But then again Microsoft doesn’t expect to make a dent against the iPod at first and this is a gen 1 product, I believe Microsft is thinking five years to establish itself in this market.
I wouldnt mind dumping my ipod, the big question here is can the software match the ease of use of iTunes,WMP 11 is pretty robust and seems faster than even iTunes 7, not surprising concidering how buggy
iTunes 7 is, but I need the ease of use and WMP 11
seems to be right there .
I guess I’ll wait and see.
October 26th, 2006 at 6:47 pm
Part 4
The User’s Point of View
Here is one area where MS could have an advantage: they are essentially copying word-for-word from a playbook that has been wide open for 5 years.
Also, I expect that the software will include more social features and other extras. MS will, from a place of weakness, do whatever they can to add value.
However, this is where the change in strategy will hurt them. Users will expect PlaysForSure to be a part of the experience; there is no reason for it not to be. They will expect the “openness” that is at the core of Microsoft’s standard strategies. It is not clear if MS knows how to do a vertical solution, nevermind if they can satisfactorily get people to accept their strategy hypocrisy.
Additionally, this will help Apple. All of the complaints surrounding the iPod (DRM lock-in, simplicity, battery issues) will be equally present in Zune. This will leave the iPod-haters with less of an argument against Apple’s few unique “problems.”
The Ecosystem
As mentioned previously, the XBox or Media Center are inconsequential in comparison to the iPod’s car market and other devices and the future potential of the “iTV.”
“And, the Zune has a better software updater. I’m already hearing that within a few days of release in mid-November that there will already be some new features released.”
Also mentioned previously, this is nonsense. Holding back a few features for a couple of weeks after launch isn’t promising. It’s a gimmick to make it appear as if it will be frequently updated. Everything I’ve heard, seen, and read from anyone involved with Zune claims they’ve done massive R&D and yet at the same time they claim they don’t know what users want, what will be possible, etc… This is simply silly. In fact, we’ve already seen large steps BACK from what was originally announced: no DJ feature, for example, only per song 3 play-3 day sharing with an individual at a time.
“If Microsoft can upgrade all of its Zune players easily with new features and games and such, then they can build experiences that the iPod can’t easily get…”
Woah, woah, woah!! The Product Manager told you they have no plans for games and have no interaction at all with the XBox team and you are already presuming they are getting games? Absurd. And why can’t the iPod easily get the same thing? In fact, the iPod has already gotten many of these things via updates.
“(and if third-party developers can play there, watch out.”
Woah! Microsoft has already locked out of its device its existing partners, its WMP team, and its XBox team, and they are proudly proclaiming this is a closed, vertical system to provide simplicity and ease-of-use, and you are granting them 3rd party developers when already the iPod has iPod Linux and a vast community of hacks and apps, numerous apps to interact with the iPod, simple apps using its notes and other features, game development, exclusive and innovative apps via partnerships with Nike, and you are giving the advantage to the Zune? More silliness.
“Remember 1989? I thought the Macintosh was superior to Windows. Which one ended up with more market share? The ones that the developers could extend the easiest.”
Why should I care about your misguided views and poor predictions? Yes, you’ve shown a track record of being wrong over and over.
Conclusion
“It’s that last point that could turn into a killer feature. If software developers are enabled to build new experiences for the Zune, then we could see something killer come along that’ll get more people interested in the Zune.”
And from what we’ve explicitly have been told by numerous Zune sources and Ballmer and other MS execs is that we should not expect this at all.
Also, in the case of consumer electronics, it is the content, not the developers as it is in the PC world. Apple has a music catalog of 3.5 million; Zune 2 million. Apple has over 200 TV shows, over 40 movies, a broad podcast directory, thousands of music videos, and will continue to expand this more rapidly in more countries quicker than MS can come close to.
October 26th, 2006 at 6:55 pm
Robert,
With your review and more especially the comments to your review, you just performed tens of thousands worth of free marketing research for both MicroSoft and Apple. The technical, business, marketing, sales, and projection data and strategic expertise here is worthy of Knowledge Wharton. Who exploits it faster may answer your original questions, analysis and conclusion.
October 26th, 2006 at 7:00 pm
Robert, You’re dead wrong about updatability…iTunes 7 has excellent support in iTunes itself for applying firmware upgrades to your iPod.
October 26th, 2006 at 7:22 pm
I am sure Apple R&D reads your posts. If not, shame on them.
October 26th, 2006 at 7:30 pm
I have a sneaky suspicion in my gut that it won’t be someone making a music device that will win this battle. We’re looking too narrow at the player-only feature first.
A hunch, is all.
October 26th, 2006 at 7:50 pm
Great post! Here is a link to a post that I wrote several weeks ago that share the sameideas that Scoble wrote about (http://www.wrightin.gs/2006/09/zune_is_so_fing.html).The biggest problem is that Microsoft is banking on this social sharing idea. Problem is that a lot of people have to own a Zune in order to share.I don’t see that happening. Especially with a 1.0 product.
October 26th, 2006 at 8:54 pm
Here is the code Zune must live by:
The supreme law of the Bizarros’ home planet Htrae, as transcribed below:
BIZARRO CODE:
1. US DO OPPOSITE OF ALL EARTHLY THINGS!
2. US HATE BEAUTY! US LOVE UGLINESS!
3. IS BIG CRIME TO MAKE ANYTHING PERFECT ON BIZARRO WORLD!”
(Adventure Comics No. 286, Jul 1961)
http://supermanica.info/wiki/index.php/Bizarro_Code
October 26th, 2006 at 9:13 pm
thanks for the review!
October 26th, 2006 at 9:18 pm
Let’s recap microsoft’s efforts:
late to…
GUI OS - now dominates
word processor - now dominates
internet browser - now dominates
server OS - now dominates
pda software - now dominates
video games - now dominates
their next targets…
digital music
search technology
are you ready to count them out before the zune is even released?
hint…the xbox 360 is killing ps3. microsoft is already working on the third generation xbox.
and I ask you again, are you ready to count them out before the zune is even released?
October 26th, 2006 at 9:30 pm
Mr. Scoble,
The downfalls of Zune? I think every time Matt stumbled or diverted on a question - there was your down fall.
How come you can’t share video?!? Possible answer is that Soap Box will fit into that equation. BS, that users were just looking to share music. Heard of YouTube?
I like the features, but as you made note, maybe 3.0.
October 26th, 2006 at 9:44 pm
I think this the most telling of Robert’s remarks is his claim that Zune offering subscriptions is somehow original and a ‘killer feature.’ Has he been asleep for the last five years or something? The subscription services, combined, have less than 20 percent of the digital content market.
Bat Masterson is a master of cluelessness, but this really takes the cake:
“Regarding lack of Mac support:
This is not an issue. You know why? 99.99999% of Mac users will NOT choose a product against which Apple competes. They will choose the product that Jobs tells them to, end of story. That’s why there’s virtually zero (or only half-hearted at best) support for the Mac by other portable player makers. They know that Apple has that market locked up to themselves. The Windows market is much more competitive.”
The Windows market belongs to Apple as much as the Mac market does when it comes to digital content and MP3 players.
(And, btw, Mac computer market share is above six percent now according to market analysts, not the three percent you make a habit of saying. That’s just the kind of foolishness I expect from someone who doesn’t know the XBox is a loss leader.)
Microsoft fanboy apologia notwithstanding, the Zune will be an also ran for the foreseeable future. (Assuming, of course, that M$ doesn’t pull the plug altogether.)
October 26th, 2006 at 9:53 pm
I think the point that Scoble has missed is that there is a LARGE market that Apple has not peretrated yet. The facts are that only 10% of homes(US) even own ONE PMP!!!! They arent trying to convert people who have 30,000 songs in iTunes or have multiple iPods in thier home. Microsoft wants the rest of the world that hasnt bought into iPod and if they can get 30-40% market share they are making MO’MONEY MO’ MONEY MO’ MONEY.
October 26th, 2006 at 10:17 pm
Only 2 profitable hits, been OS and Office, for all that “domination” nothing else has ever much paid off.
Here’s the ADD-ON to your list. :)
late to…
Phones - Joke of a joke. Getting Symbian slaughtered. And as phones become more PDAish, even strict PDA domination will fade.
Tablet/Pen/UMPC tech - No one paying attention, all mostly wasted.
Web TV, Ultimate TV, MSN TV, Cable TV Ventures - Billions upon billions lost, but still puffing on that pipe with IPTV.
Web Servers - Apache deathtrap.
PDF copycats and eBook tech - DOA.
Graphics software - Ain’t no Adobe.
Digital ID Tech - Passport? What’s that?
Finance software - Microsoft Money, hahaha, do be serious.
Xbox/Xbox 360 - Both outsold by PS2, still BILLIONS! in the hole.
SPOT watches - Oh dear me.
OS - MSX and MSX-II. Grand Unified Vision, not.
Tech Toys - Microsoft Actimates…oh oh.
Web Conferencing Software - Dead already.
Content - MSNBC iffy, Slate, Sidewalk toasted, as countless other content partnerships. MSN Media Network the latest poke. Rathole.
Home Tech - Microsoft at Home (MAH)/Microsoft at Work (MAW) / BOB trainwrecks.
Hardware - Abandonware WiFi. Mouse and some halfway dominate still.
And more…and much more to come. I predict the Halo movie will be a Bonfire-like disaster.
October 26th, 2006 at 10:34 pm
I’m already hooked on Mac stuff so it would take something really awesome from the Zune to make me “switch”. I have an iPod video and it’s like another appendage. I’m totally embedded in iTunes and the way it manages music and podcasts, and now videos.
The only thing that was intriguing to me about Zune was the wireless. At the minimum it should have allowed syncing with a PC to copy files. The sharing thing is interesting but not cool enough, since you need more than one Zune for it to have any point.
We’ll see but I’m predicting this is a loss leader and a doorstop to buy time for MSFT to come out with a better version 2 or 3.
October 26th, 2006 at 10:56 pm
A few other people have noted this but I would like to add to those who point out that Apple has been adding features to iPods via updates. Even my lowly 512mb shuffle has effectively been updated over time with some of the specific features that were missing when I first bought it (iTunes noting play times for items I played on the shuffle - and now it also tracks skipped songs).
Also re the podcast comment - my shuffle is almost entirely filled with podcasts. My daily routine is to run my podcatcher in the morning (Doppler Radio, still searching for anything as good for the mac) and then sync my shuffle (which is usually already connected and recharging overnight). I sync against a smart playlist of unplayed songs - so typically I fill my shuffle with 10-12hrs of podcasts - more than sufficient for my listening needs most days.
With the rare exception, I only use my shuffle to listen to podcasts - and though I may be an exception - I suspect I’m not the only person. For me the shuffle has a great set of features - small, nearly indestructible, lightweight. I am tempted however to get one of the new shuffles - which are even smaller and the clip looks pretty useful as well (I usually use the lanyard currently).
I may also get a nano or bigger iPod in part due to the cross platform compatibility (I have an iMac and a Thinkpad)
October 27th, 2006 at 12:01 am
>>Which one ended up with more market share? The ones that the developers could extend the easiest.
Nice job. This is what I’ve been saying but have been a bit more blunt. Just like the original Xbox was hackable, if the Zune is as hackable (such as being able to turn on Wifi to connect to network or there’s a way to trade songs with no limitations, etc) then maybe it has a chance with the edge group. That same group that bought mod chips in order to turn the Xbox into a media center that played nearly everything.
But the Zune won’t reach a mass audience like the iPod has. Women won’t buy it. How many women do you see carrying around a the feature-rich iRiver players? It’s not stylish and nothing from Microsoft will become as cool as anything from Apple. J. Allard and the Xbox team couldn’t pull it off this time around.
October 27th, 2006 at 12:28 am
“several people have told me they didn’t like the round control surface on the Zune because they were used to the iPod wheel and the Zune didn’t work the same way. Once you get used to it, the Zune is just fine (and offers a couple of advantages”
How do you know it’s just fine when you get used to it? It’s not just the controller hardware but the software also which you admittedly claim as:
“Software experience: unknown.”
There’s no substance here Robert. And claiming it’s better at integration because it works with Media Centre and XBox? iPod works with Macs, PCs, Linux machines, cars, stereos…
Zune doesn’t work with anything other than Microsoft platforms. And not taking podcasts into account? It’s a stinker, Robert. An absolute stinker.
With WiFi, you’d think that it would be perfect to stay up to date by the second with your RSS feeds (better screen too) and podcasts. An opportunity to be completely connected in a device designed for consumption rather than communication. But the WiFi is totally wasted and used solely as a marketing tool to allow the labels to sell more music. And what’s the chance that some enterprising scumbag will hack the WiFi and use it to share the first Zune viruses….
Zune is, by design, the ultimate antithesis of the iPod. Restrictive where iPod is accepting, open in areas that iPod would not go because those areas are not pro-consumer. Apple says “Don’t Steal Music”. Microsoft says “Buy Music Now”.
Zune causes conversations and that’s great. But they’re all talking about how badly this device will fare. But shops will sell out anyway due to a stranglehold on the number of units released to shops. It’s a bundle of marketing floss.
October 27th, 2006 at 2:32 am
I hate booth!
October 27th, 2006 at 3:47 am
Scoble
It is increasingly becoming obvious that you are moving away from your role of a “reporter” to that of an arm-chair critic and the laundry list of know-it-all-comments that decorate your blog only perpetuates that belief of mine.
My 2 cents -
Corporates today only indulge you for historical reasons; they dont regard you as a credible source of input or information(except maybe for blogging and related matters)
Start reporting; Stop Opining. Opine on those things that you understand and are proficient at - corporate blogging, social networks, podcasts and so on.
Stick to the facts when reporting all else; else you sound hopefully inadequate and out of your depth.
Here’s my take -
It really doesnt matter what 90% of 2% of a market owns or thinks of. The mp3 media market is largely untapped and there is going to be plenty of room for everybody without having to push and shove.
Please dont take my word for it - visit a country like India and you will understand what the drivers are. (after all this is the biggest retail opportunity outside of China isnt it?)
Buying an Ipod every 3 months is not it. Nor is having to break open a device to change batteries.
October 27th, 2006 at 3:50 am
Sorry - read that as “Hopelessly Inadequate”. My bad.
October 27th, 2006 at 5:25 am
[...] Check out Scoble’s Zune vs iPod post. It’s a really succinct summary of the pros and cons for Microsoft’s soon-to-be-released-in-the-US Zune music player. [...]
October 27th, 2006 at 5:58 am
Nice Post Scoble, though I would like to know if there is a price differnece between teh Zune and the pod, perhaps that would enable me to buy it!
October 27th, 2006 at 6:08 am
Good post Robert. A few thoughts….
(1) Your comments about iPod updating isn’t very accurate. From the updating itself all the way through thinking it could be a killer feature.
(2) The fact the Zune doesn’t work on a Mac brings to mind that at the beginnning the iPod didn’t work on Windows. In fact, the tipping point for the iPod was when the iTunes Windows client was released.
(3) I agree, Zune has no compelling features today. It is a single model with one or two - easily copied - features to differentiate it from an iPod. To me THIS is the major point to remember. Just as Microsoft can easily add podcast support to the Zune, Apple can add subscriptions.
(4) So they really ARE going to call it “Zune”? Sigh. At least it’s a step in the right direction - much better than the 7 versions of Vista… each with enough syllables to insure it can never roll off the tongue.
But what exactly IS a zune? Zune? Or is it zUne? I mean, the original iPod was pretty much that - an easily removable peripheral that seamlessly integrated with a piece of software that downloaded music over the internet.
October 27th, 2006 at 6:15 am
[...] News Permalink: http://podcastpickle.com/news/44/ Syndication: RSS 2.0 You can leave a response, or trackback from your ownsite. [...]
October 27th, 2006 at 7:13 am
I can check my e-mail at Star Bucks with a Zune.
Can you do that with an iPod? Just a thought; an old rumor I just started.
Drive the innovation. Don’t PM about the technology.
This is the forum to voice all of your wouldn’t it be nice features for the teams that may or may not be listening. PM = “piss & Moan” Be part of the solution. WHAT DO YOU THINK ?
Besides Robert said he would give his take on the technology after we told him our opinions. That’s not armchairing, that’s a wise blog guru.
October 27th, 2006 at 7:28 am
am I the only person in the western world without an iPod ?
October 27th, 2006 at 7:33 am
go iPOD!!!!! :D
October 27th, 2006 at 7:41 am
Good article Scoble..
as for the “can i do this, can i do this”… all of those features would rock, but they’re all features that the music industry doesn’t want you to do. How much pressure did MS recieve from them? I’m sure there’s a lot.
The Music industry would collectively shit themselves if you were given a handheld device that played multi DRM formats, recorded radio, let you download music on the fly.
also, I’m sick of the indsutry using “podcast”, and “ipod compatible”.
My Jeep has had an audio in jack in it’s stereo years before the ipod was dreampt of. It’s not ipod compatible, it’s audio in. (great for road trips.. hook up laptop through car speakers, watch movie)
It’s genious marketing though. Almost a “brand hijack”. How many people actually buy ipods to listen to “podcasts”… and why did we need a name other than “audio file”?
October 27th, 2006 at 8:07 am
HEY SCHO, I LIKE YOUR STATS & REVIEWS… YET IF YOUR REVIEW IS BIASED ON ZUNE THEN YOU MAY BE QUITE WRONG! APPLE DOES DESERVE THE DESIGN ON “i-POD”! YET M$ SEEMS TO ADAPT THE SAME…NICE BLOGGING…
October 27th, 2006 at 8:21 am
There’s one significant problem with the subscription feature - having to give Microsoft a credit card for recurring payments. I had a paid hotmail account for a while (so I could get POP access). It was super easy to sign up on the web page. When I no longer needed it, it was super hard to cancel. There is no way to cancel online. I had to call. It wasn’t easy to find the number. The place was only open certain hours (which didn’t match my needs). The first time I called their “computer was down” and I had to call back the next day. Then of course the mandatory grilling to find out why I was leaving. Overall a really bad customer experience which ensured I will never sign up for a Microsoft paid service again. Back-end service quality matters at least as much as the product itself.
October 27th, 2006 at 8:42 am
[...] Robert has a post up on his thoughts on the Zune as compared to the iPod. It’s a decent read and he has some of the same concerns (and answers a few questions) that I have. [...]
October 27th, 2006 at 8:53 am
Vivek: I’ve never done much reporting here, even when I worked back at Microsoft. There is an unsubscribe button on your News Aggregator for a reason. You might be happier reading my Link Blog where I just link to other bloggers who are doing a good job.
October 27th, 2006 at 9:02 am
I will not buy an iPod. I will not buy a Zune.
In my opinion, they are just overpriced “junk”. Plus, I don’t want to “fit-in” with the rest. People look pathetic wearing their iPods on their backpacks or on their arms so they could “show it off”. Sad.
We are like cookies from a massive cookie cutter machine.
October 27th, 2006 at 9:11 am
How stable is Zune? Does it crashes? Does it have viruses? Battery life? Just a few thoughts…
October 27th, 2006 at 9:14 am
Only geeks currently know what updating means, and they know that an update can reduce functionality. The Vista license says that MS reserves the right to degrade the OS. (If an update makes it impossible to do something that I could do before and I want to do said something, thats a degrade.)
Yes, Apple can degrade IPods through upgrades, but MS is the one with the bad reputation in this area. That’s an obstacle that Zune has to overcome.
October 27th, 2006 at 9:15 am
Robert - It feels sick everytime you ask someone to ‘unsubscribe’ just because they disagree with you or criticize. Not something a ‘book author’ would do regularly.
I am thinking how your blog entry would like if your car manufacturer told you to stop using ‘their car’ bcos you complained…
October 27th, 2006 at 9:34 am
I tried to force my daughter down the path of Napster and Creative player, I wanted her to have access to all these songs without worrying about pay-per-download. Blew up in my face. Subscription services to-go were WAY too confusing for her (and even for me). Sometimes they would just stop working. And of course she now wants — and really always wanted — an iPod.
I think there’s a market for an Apple alternative — isn’t that a funny concept — that will just slowly grow over time. Remember Internet Explorer, Microsoft MP3 player will have a similar path but ending I think more at 50-50, which would be a huge Apple long-term success story.
October 27th, 2006 at 9:55 am
best comment so far? #60, and mrbill!
“hint…the xbox 360 is killing ps3. microsoft is already working on the third generation xbox.
and I ask you again, are you ready to count them out before the zune is even released?”
anyone else see the humor in this? :D
October 27th, 2006 at 10:05 am
Zune will not live up to the hype.
Seriously…is this the best MSFT can do?
If so, they are dooomed…..and I hate to say it being a MSFT fanboy for years.
This is about design… the design doesn’t even come close.
Best,
E. David Zotter
October 27th, 2006 at 10:27 am
Great article Robert. It seemed rather fair to both the Ipod and Zune. In all actuality, this will be a very interesting battle. The Ipod lemmings think it will go one way, the MS fanboys obviously think it will go the other. I’m a subscription music listener for life. I just can’t go back to the pay per song model. Currently, I use a sandisk with AOL Music Now. I get good mileage out of it. But, I want a traditional several-gig beast with the slickness of a Gigabeat S that also features subscription music. With that being said, the Zune is an obvious choice for me. It’s not really about the cool factor or anything else. If Apple offered subscriptions, then I’d give them a look. Until then, I have no reason to look their way. And since I’ll be buying this 249 dollar device, they may be out of the picture for several years. And by the way, brown is the new white. People either love it or hate it, and talk about a conversation piece…I can see people defending it now with heated battles ensuing, and you can be sure the Ipod lemmings will attack it venemously.
October 27th, 2006 at 10:35 am
so who want on the list for testing the Commodore Gravel in-Pocket ;-)
Robert and others feel more than free to give suggestions for our device. Btw we will release a SDK for develop and share your own apps for the Gravel devices.
cheers,
October 27th, 2006 at 10:41 am
A good post about Robert’s view. If intrested check it out here
http://www.zunester.com/
Its from a guy from Zune’s team.
October 27th, 2006 at 10:47 am
Oh I will unsubscribe not because you opine but because you can’t seem to stomach criticism - it looks like only conformism works with you. I am ok with that.
I will take my 2 cents and my eyeballs elsewhere.
October 27th, 2006 at 11:29 am
MS Future Team: How about a cool prox viewing feature where xBox players can transmit the current game to Zune units within a 50 foot radius if the option is selected on multiple Zunes.
How many kids would like the “watch me kick his but in blah blah ” game function. Talk about connecting. The new spectator sport while waiting to take on the competition and gaining strategy. I could hear it now “Get him! Look out ! etc. ” Just a thought for the Zune team. Robert ask Patrick what he thinks about the idea-r. Was that you in Bldg 42 on the 3rd Floor? ; ) Say hi to Bill.
Stealth blogging at its best. No not yet.
October 27th, 2006 at 11:29 am
This is a very useful comparison for buying.
I have had a case of Hamlet: Do be or not be in the iPod camp. But your post nailed the decision for me.
I was waiting to get the word on Zune before making a decision. Guess iPod is the way to go, especially if your son did not see anything different in Zune. The young ones are the harbingers for any kind of traction in the gadget world.
Thanks for the review.
Kamla
kamla
October 27th, 2006 at 12:03 pm
[...] More Scoble on ZunePosted on 11:03 am by Paul Colligan Scoble chimed in on the Zune subject again. [...]
October 27th, 2006 at 12:17 pm
First, Apple is not sitting around waiting for competitors to catch up. It continues to improve and innovate even though it’s on top. Zune may add features and updates, but in that time frame, iPods will also.
Second, the Mac’s market share of personal computers is low. That’s all personal computers in all uses including enterprise. In home use where iPods and Zunes will compete, Macs have a larger market share that the stats quoted by some here. Based on past Microsoft behavior, we would eventurally expect Zune for Mac.
October 27th, 2006 at 12:44 pm
The Macintosh incompatibility and podcast-unfriendliness are total deal breakers for me.
When I bought my iPod, I thought that I’d mostly use it to listen to music. As it turns out, podcasts have become my media of choice - I listen to them on my commutes to and from work, and most of my news and current events information come from podcasts (and textcasts.)
I’m sure that podcast support will be added to the Zune in later versions. But until then, given my listening habits, it makes no sense for me to switch.
And I use Windows at work, but an iBook at home. So I need my device to function with both.
October 27th, 2006 at 12:57 pm
There’s still someone who thinks he can use Wi-Fi to check his mail on a Zune as much as the limitations of its Wi-Fi have been discussed?
Vivek, the digital media content market is not even remotely about backwaters like India. For the time being and the foreseeable future this is a First World matter. Heck, even much of Europe still does not have full iTunes Store access.
Isaiah, about a quarter of Americans currently own or have accesss to MP3 players. It puzzles me that people like you and Bat Masterson just pull some arbitary figure out of the air instead of checking market research.
October 27th, 2006 at 1:53 pm
I am afraid I have to agree with Vivek. No offence, Robert but I will go elsewhere as well.
When viewers who disagree with you are continually advised to unsubscribe, your blog begins to lost its objectivity.
Thanks a lot for the good information and witty comments, Robert. Time for me to move on!
October 27th, 2006 at 2:38 pm
Vivek and Raman: this is my blog. Sorry you don’t like it. Have fun reading something else. I don’t want to be a “reporter.” If you expect me to be one, you probably will be happier over at news.com or ZDNet or somewhere like that.
What you get here is what I want to talk about. Period. To expect something else will get you the reaction I just gave. Go somewhere else. It’s obvious you want to read someone else.
As for taking criticism, I get tons of criticism. I think my record on listening and understanding criticism is unparalleled. If you think it’s not, then maybe you aren’t a smart reader and you might be happier reading someone else who doesn’t expect a reader to be smart.
October 27th, 2006 at 2:54 pm
“I remember being in a meeting at Microsoft where someone showed off how much better the iPod experience”
I think you meant Apple for this sentence.
Regarding the ability for Zune to update itself, how does this differ from Apple’s ability to send iPod firmware updates through iTunes?
October 27th, 2006 at 3:34 pm
[...] In any case, Scoble’s take on the “device” is here and it is pretty scathing. [...]
October 27th, 2006 at 4:16 pm
Robert, Apple does provide software updates for iPods. I don’t know where you got the idea that they didn’t. Unless it’s that you buy so many iPods for yourself and your son, that your purchases are more frequent than the software updates themselves; so you’re getting the new software via hardware purchases. ;-)
October 27th, 2006 at 4:22 pm
Podesta, you completely missed my point.
My point was that Mac users will choose Apple products regardless. So it makes no sense for a portable media player to go after the Mac user market. Your response that “Apple owns the Windows market just as much as the Mac market” (wrt mp3 players) is irrelevant to my point. The Windows market is more wide-open to competition from multiple companies. With the Mac market, competition basically dies once Apple introduces a product in a particular field, because Mac users ignore and mock competing products from that point on. I’ve been a Mac user since 1986 and a Windows user since 1990. I know of which I speak. If anyone is “clueless” it’s you.
October 27th, 2006 at 4:36 pm
If Zune Version 1 is as good as I’m seeing it, and if Microsoft stays committed to its success (as they have with Xbox), then I’m in.
The subscription service, the screen size, the built-in FM, the cool UI, and sure, the wireless sharing, are good enough to put it over iPod for me.
It’s been well thought out, and I think we’ll see many of the holes - like podcasting - filled painlessly in firmware releases.
- Harvey
http://www.zunerama.com
October 27th, 2006 at 4:45 pm
Kevin: no, I meant at Microsoft. We were in a meeting where we were talking about what the iPod did right.
October 27th, 2006 at 5:03 pm
What the iPod did right, everything Sony did not.
October 27th, 2006 at 5:12 pm
Whoa, Nellyf. Bat, you said:
“My point was that Mac users will choose Apple products regardless. So it makes no sense for a portable media player to go after the Mac user market. Your response that “Apple owns the Windows market just as much as the Mac market” (wrt mp3 players) is irrelevant to my point. The Windows market is more wide-open to competition from multiple companies. With the Mac market, competition basically dies once Apple introduces a product in a particular field, because Mac users ignore and mock competing products from that point on. I’ve been a Mac user since 1986 and a Windows user since 1990. I know of which I speak. If anyone is “clueless” it’s you.”
To support your position, you must explain why products such as Microsoft Office and Microsoft mice are so popular with Mac users. After all, there are Apple and non-M$ third party alternatives. Take all the space you need to ‘educate’ us.
When you’ve done with that, DO explain why you believe Apple computers have three percent of the U.S. market.
If Zune were The Perfect Pod, it would indeed eat into iPod market share quickly. The reason it will not is that it is not even competitive.
Robert, perhaps if you describe your blog as being an expression of opinion in your masthead people like the fellows who are leaving will not get so huffy when opinion is what they get.